Carney’s Victory: Is A Turning Point for Canada?
The 2025 Canadian federal election concluded on April 28, 2025, with the Liberal Party, led by Mark Carney, securing a narrow victory over the Conservative Party. Carney, a former central banker and political newcomer, assumed the Liberal leadership in March following Justin Trudeau’s resignation. Despite winning 168 seats—just shy of the 172 needed for a majority—the Liberals are set to form a minority government.
The House of Commons has 343 seats. A party needs 172 seats to form a majority government. Liberal party who won the highest number of seats, not able to form the majority government. The Liberal Party did not secure a majority, meaning they will form a minority government. This will require them to work with other parties to pass legislation.
Liberal Party: Projected to win around 169 seats. This result means they have a minority government, falling short of the 172 seats needed for a majority.
Conservative Party: Projected to win around 144 seats.
Bloc Québécois: Expected to finish with approximately 22 seats.
New Democratic Party (NDP): Expected to win around 7 seats.
Green Party: Expected to win 1 seat.
NDP Performance in Federal Election
The NDP’s seat count in the House of Commons drastically decreased. The party lost its official party status, which requires a minimum of 12 seats. Jagmeet Singh, the NDP leader, also lost his own seat. Following the election results, Jagmeet Singh announced his intention to resign as party leader. Reports indicate that the Conservative Party’s resurgence and the Liberal Party’s performance contributed to the NDP’s losses. There is also information indicating that the previous supply and confidence agreement with the liberal party, may have been a factor in the decline of the NDP popularity. The NDP is now the fourth-largest party in the House of Commons, with a significantly reduced number of seats.
2021 Federal Election
On the previous Canadian federal election, it’s important to look at the 2021 election,
2021 Canadian Federal Election
- This election was held on September 20, 2021.
- Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party won the most seats, securing a minority government.
- Liberal Party: 160 seats.
- Conservative Party: 119 seats.
- The New Democratic Party (NDP) won 25 seats.
- The election resulted in a second consecutive Liberal minority government.
- The election was called by Justin Trudeau, in an attempt to gain a majority government.
- This election was marked by a desire by the liberal party to gain a majority, but they were unable to do so.
Reason For Winning the Election
A major contributing factor was the reaction of Canadian voters to the policies and rhetoric of U.S. President Donald Trump. His threats and actions, including trade tariffs and suggestions of annexing Canada, galvanized Canadian national sentiment. This led to a surge in support for the Liberal Party, which positioned itself as a defender of Canadian sovereignty.
Shift in Political Leadership
The change in Liberal leadership, with Mark Carney taking over, played a crucial role. His experience and perceived ability to counter U.S. influence resonated with voters.
Conservative Party’s Alignment
The Conservative Party’s leader, Pierre Poilievre, suffered a decline in support due to his perceived alignment with Trump’s political style. This alienated many swing voters.
National Unity
The Liberal Party’s emphasis on national unity in the face of external threats proved to be an effective campaign strategy.
Voter Turnout
There was a very high voter turnout, and this high turnout seemed to favor the liberal party.
